2026 Brazilian presidential runoff · live market odds

Flávio Bolsonaro 86% to win the runoff

  • Who wins? Lula 14% · Flávio Bolsonaro 86% ($180.9M traded)
  • Our polling average: Flávio Bolsonaro +1.2 (138 runoff polls, latest Oct 12).
  • First round (Oct 4): Flávio Bolsonaro 47.0%, Lula 45.2%; 7.8% voted for the 10 others.
  • States: the market favours Flávio Bolsonaro in 16, Lula in 11 (2022 runoff: Lula 13, Jair Bolsonaro 14).
  • Last time (2022 runoff): Lula (PT) 50.9% – Jair Bolsonaro (PL) 49.1%.
Polls close in
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Sunday, Oct 25 · polls close at 5 pm Brasília time
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
PTWorkers' Party
President of Brazil (incumbent; 2003–2011, 2023–present)
Running mate: Geraldo Alckmin (PSB)
Brasil Pronto pra Mais (PT, PCdoB, PV, PSOL, REDE, PSB, PDT)
Flávio Bolsonaro
PLLiberal Party
Senator for Rio de Janeiro (2019–present)
Running mate: Alfredo Gaspar (PL)
Chance to winPolymarket · $180.9M traded
14%86%
Polling average138 runoff polls · % of all voters
45.146.3
First round, Oct 4% of valid votes
45.247.0
2022 runoff: Lula vs Jair Bolsonarosame parties · % of valid votes
50.949.1

First round · Sunday, Oct 4

Turnout 78.9% · 119,300,788 valid votes
  • Flávio BolsonaroRunoff47.0%
  • LulaRunoff45.2%
  • Augusto Cury2.9%
  • Renan Santos2.2%
  • Ronaldo Caiado2.2%
  • Romeu Zema0.3%
  • Samara Martins0.1%
  • Hertz Dias<0.1%
  • Clariana Barão<0.1%
  • Edmilson Costa<0.1%
  • Wilson Grassi<0.1%
  • Rui Costa Pimenta<0.1%

State by state

Market favourite to win each state now. Solid = big lead, faint = close.
LulaFlávio Bolsonaro
States ledMarketRound 12022
Lula111213
Flávio Bolsonaro161514
State win price · round-1 lead · 2022 lead
  • North
  • 1%99%PL +35.8PL +40.6
  • 60%42%PT +3.2PT +2.2
  • 17%84%PT +0.0PL +2.7
  • 81%20%PT +5.4PT +9.5
  • <1%>99%PL +41.6PL +41.3
  • <1%99%PL +48.2PL +52.2
  • 2%98%PL +7.0PT +2.7
  • Northeast
  • 97%3%PT +14.3PT +17.4
  • 98%2%PT +37.6PT +44.2
  • 97%3%PT +32.0PT +39.9
  • 96%4%PT +33.1PT +42.3
  • 98%4%PT +28.2PT +33.2
  • 98%2%PT +32.4PT +33.9
  • 97%3%PT +46.9PT +53.7
  • 96%3%PT +25.0PT +30.2
  • 97%3%PT +32.1PT +34.4
  • Center-West
  • <1%99%PL +13.2PL +17.6
  • 1%99%PL +22.5PL +17.4
  • 1%99%PL +23.9PL +19.0
  • 1%99%PL +36.0PL +30.2
  • Southeast
  • <1%97%PL +17.0PL +16.1
  • 9%90%PL +4.9PT +0.4
  • 3%96%PL +13.6PL +13.1
  • 4%96%PL +13.7PL +10.5
  • South
  • 2%98%PL +28.7PL +24.8
  • <1%98%PL +19.9PL +12.7
  • <1%>99%PL +41.6PL +38.5
  • Abroad
  • 67%34%PT +4.1PT +2.6
State markets: “Lula” left, “Flávio Bolsonaro” right; volume $319K across 28 markets.

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Governor runoffs · same day

PP favoured in 2 of 6 races. Market odds, with each runoff's own first-round result.