2026 Bulgarian presidential election · live market odds

Iotova 88% to win the presidency

Who wins? Iotova 88% · Gyurov 12% · Kostadinov <1% ($1.2M traded)
Our polling average: Iotova 48.0, Gyurov 25.6, Kostadinov 10.2 (6 polls, latest Oct 6; % of decided voters).
A runoff on Sunday, Nov 1 is all but certain: Iotova vs Gyurov on both the market and the polls.
Last time (2021): Rumen Radev–Iotova 49.4% in round 1 (turnout 40.3%), 66.7% in the runoff.
No new polls may be published from Saturday, Oct 24 until voting ends.

Round 1 polls close in

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Sunday, Oct 25 · polls close at 8 pm Sofia time

First round · Sunday, Oct 25 · 27 pairs on the ballot

Polling average, % of decided voters · line at 50%

#CandidatePollsWin1st2nd

25Iliana IotovaIncumbentProjected runoffwith Kiril Valchev · Initiative committee · backed by Progressive Bulgaria, BSP – United Left, Stand Up.BG, IMRO – BNM48.045–5288%97%1%
4Andrey GyurovProjected runoffwith Georgi Kandev · Initiative committee · backed by PP–DB, We Are Coming!25.624–2812%3%92%
11Kostadin Kostadinovwith Petar Volgin · Revival10.28–13<1%<1%4%
19Ivelin Mihaylovwith Yuliana Mateeva · Velichie3.02–5———
17Radostin Vasilevwith Krasimir Manov · MECh2.82–5———
18Ivan Hristanovwith Stoyanka Cherkezova · Initiative committee · backed by Edinenie2.81–4———

Priced but not on the ballot: Vassil Terziev <1%, Nikolai Denkov <1%, Blagomir Kotsev <1%, Yanaki Stoilov <1%, Delyan Peevski <1%, Boyko Borissov <1%, Rosen Zhelyazkov <1%, Natalia Kiselova <1%, Krum Zarkov <1%, Atanas Atanasov <1%, Rosen Plevneliev <1%. None of them is registered, so none can win.

Road to the runoff

Sunday, Nov 1 · polls close at 8 pm Sofia time

To win in the first round a candidate needs more than half of the valid votes, and more than half of registered voters must turn out. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff a week later.

Poll leader: Iotova48.0% · needs over 50%

Share of decided voters; 44.5–51.6 across 6 polls

Turnout last time (2021)40.3% · needs over 50%

Round 1 40.3%, runoff 34.6% (approximate)

Top two on the polls: Iotova+Gyurov
Top two on the market: Iotova+Gyurov(Iotova first 97%, Gyurov second 92%)
Anyone wins outright: 6% · a runoff is all but certain

Projected runoff

Iliana Iotova

with Kiril Valchev

Backed by Progressive Bulgaria, BSP – United Left, Stand Up.BG, IMRO – BNM

Andrey Gyurov

with Georgi Kandev

Backed by PP–DB, We Are Coming!

Chance to win

88%12%

Round 1 polling average% of decided voters

48.025.6

Last time · 2021

Round 1 · Nov 14Turnout ≈40.3%

Rumen Radev49.4%
Anastas Gerdzhikov22.8%
Mustafa Karadayi11.6%
Kostadin Kostadinov3.9%
Lozan Panov3.7%
18 others6.3%
None of the above2.3%

Runoff · Nov 21Turnout ≈34.6%

Rumen RadevWon66.7%
Anastas Gerdzhikov31.8%
None of the above1.5%

Highlighted: tickets with someone on this year's ballot. Iliana Iotova was Rumen Radev's running mate.

Polls · round 1

% of decided voters · newer and larger polls weigh more

Pollster	Fieldwork	Iotova	Gyurov	Kostadinov	Mihaylov	Lead
Average	6 polls	48.0	25.6	10.2	3.0	+22.4
Gallup International	Sep 26 – Oct 6 · n=987	47.8	26.4	11.6	1.7	+21.4
Myara	Sep 26 – Oct 4 · n=1,000	46.9	25.3	8.8	4.2	+21.6
Trend	Sep 26 – Oct 2 · n=1,003	47.8	24.6	9.7	2.4	+23.2
Alpha Research	Sep 24 – Oct 1 · n=1,000	44.5	26.1	10.5	2.2	+18.4
Market Links	Sep 26–29 · n=1,006	51.6	27.5	8.0	4.9	+24.1
Sova Harris	Sep 23–28 · n=1,000	50.2	23.7	12.7	—	+26.5

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